From tough sells to rising stars

April 17, 2017

From tough sells to rising starsSmart buyers find instant equity in soon-to-be-hot neighborhoods

Friday, April 14, 2017, Vol. 41, No. 15 By Bill Lewis

Racquel Martin has lived in her newly built East Nashville condo for just a few weeks and has no plans to sell it any time soon. But if she did, she could make a tidy profit.

That’s how red hot the real estate market is in the city and the counties around it.

“When I got the appraisal, my eyes were out of my head,” says Martin, who closed on her condo in the Solo East development last month.

Solo East, located at 1118 Litton Ave., is along an emerging stretch of Gallatin Road. Nearby in South Inglewood, the 17-townhome Chester development is going up on Chester Avenue. Bailey, a development of 16 townhomes and condos, is under construction on West Eastland Avenue.

They are examples of thousands of new residences being built in once-overlooked neighborhoods across Nashville.

“I see communities that were once down becoming hot,” says Bruce McNeilage, a partner in Harpeth Development, the company that developed Solo East.

For some, it’s a matter of affordability. Homes can be cheaper in redeveloping neighborhoods. There’s also the choice of lifestyles. Growing numbers of downsizers moving from the suburbs and millennials moving to the city or remaining after graduating from college want to be close to the urban core.

They have their choice of neighborhoods including Tech Hill, located close to Trevecca Nazarene University and the Fairgrounds, where the city has proposed building a Major League Soccer stadium, Wedgewood-Houston, a maker community with hundreds of new residences and manufacturers including Corsair Distillery, and Germantown, where the new Nashville Sounds baseball stadium is located.

Opposite Germantown on the east bank of the Cumberland River, the planned River North project will bring new residential and commercial development to a 105-acre site near where Jefferson Street becomes Spring Street. The Topgolf sports entertainment complex is rising nearby.

On Tech Hill – given that name because of the growing number of technology businesses along Nolensville Pike – Core Development is building Alloy condominiums. Half of the units are priced under $200,000. The community’s features include a Bongo Java Roasting Co. coffee shop.

The nearby Brown’s Creek Greenway offers walking and biking connections to the Melrose neighborhood, the 440 Greenway and eventually to a 25-mile loop of greenways around the city.

City Lights, a boutique development of 71 luxury condos with prices ranging from the $500,000s to more than $3 million, is underway on Rutledge Hill, south of downtown close to Ascend Amphitheater.

From tough sells to rising stars

One of the floor models at Solo East shows off the open concept kitchen and living room.
— Michelle Morrow | The Ledger

In the Nations, a Charlotte Pike neighborhood once known for its location next to Tennessee’s historic state prison, homes priced from $350,000 to $400,000 are now ordinary.

Developers are planning more than 1,000 residences in the Nations over the next two years.

“Already permitted,” says Michael Kenner, CEO of MiKen Development.

“When I started in the Nations in 2013, people told me I was crazy,” adds Kenner, whose Treaty Oaks development in the neighborhood will have 60 single-family homes ranging from just over 1,000 square feet to 1,575 square feet. Prices start at $259,000.

Nashville’s new urban residents are looking for convenience, Kenner points out.

“Millennials and empty nesters want everything at their fingertips. Everything’s on an app. They want everything at their front door,” he says.

Greenway living

On the city’s east side, Sharon and Bob Perry purchased a home built by Regent Homes in the rapidly redeveloping Rosebank neighborhood and made plans to move from Franklin. Nearby, Core is at work on Joule, a development of 30 cottage homes on 3.5 acres close to the Shelby Bottoms Greenway.

Aerial Development Group is developing East Greenway Park in Rosebank with direct access to the greenway. The neighborhood is designed to encourage outdoor activities.

“The historic Cornelia Fort Airpark is now a city park. The greenways are just fantastic,” says David McGowan, Regent Homes president.

The upside of growth is that Nashville’s older neighborhoods are seeing new investment, he says. But there is a darker undercurrent.

“One thing people don’t realize is there is a shortage of housing stock in Nashville. Fewer homes were built in 2016 than in 2015. There are 100 people a day moving to Nashville. Where are they supposed to find houses?” McGowan asks.

Demand is high, but there are fewer homes listed for sale across the region than there were last year. There were 7,276 homes listed for sale last month. In March 2016 there were 7,926.

Predictably, prices are heading in the opposite direction. The median price of a house in the region was $273,500 in March. A year ago, it was $245,000, Greater Nashville Realtors statistics show.

From tough sells to rising stars

The competition for homes can be brutal. Realtor Bruce Jones recently advised a client to include an escalator clause in the offer. Whatever someone else offered, his client agreed to pay more for the property, a tear-down in Green Hills.

“We still lost out,” says Jones, broker for Re/Max Fine Homes in Brentwood.

Everyone else had the same idea. The seller received eight offers with escalator clauses. Four were for cash.

“That’s aggressive,” adds Jones, who in addition to being a Realtor is building $1 million-plus homes in Green Hills on Belmont Park Terrace and Castleman and Overhill drives.

“We built some across the street last year and they sold in five days,” he explains.

For Racquel Martin, rising prices meant her Solo East condo was worth more on the day she moved in than she paid for it.

She signed the contract to buy her two-bedroom residence in August 2015, before the 130 condos at Solo East were built, after her mother spotted the development on Facebook.

At that time, the introductory price of a condo similar to Martin’s was in the mid-$200,000s, reflecting the commitment of McNeilage and Harpeth Development to bring affordable, workforce housing to the city.

Less than two years later, the price of Solo East’s one and two-bedroom units has risen substantially, McNeilage says.

“The blessing is, (early buyers) got in cheap because they are now $50,000 to $60,000 more,” he says.

“Nashville is the hottest city in the world. That’s good if you own a home, but if I’m not on the ownership train” it can be difficult to buy a first home, McNeilage adds.

He’s hoping to do something about that with his next project, Solo Lofts, a development of 110 condos planned for a redeveloping stretch of Dickerson Road about a mile from downtown. Prices will start at $199,000 for a one-bedroom unit and $299,000 for a two-bedroom condo.

McNeilage says he is endeavoring to keep a promise to Mayor Megan Barry to bring more workforce housing to the city. Solo Lofts will include 16 condos with a price of $99,000.

His goal, notes McNeilage, is to help more people “achieve the American Dream” of home ownership.

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Meeting the Needs of Consumers, Developers and Investors By Bruce McNeilage In early 2022 I made a prediction. The three-bedroom house would die a slow death. What was once a staple of American construction and homeownership has become as outdated as ‘70s floral couches and wood-paneled living rooms. Consumer demand is pushing builders to create more four- and five-bedroom homes. In addition, existing business conditions make four- and five-bedroom homes the best option for developers and investors. As 2022 played out, my prediction came to fruition. Of the more than 1 million homes constructed in 2022, more than half were four bedrooms or more. That is up from just 25% in 1973. Given current demographics, mortgage rates and work-from-home trends, we expect this trend to continue in the foreseeable future. Older Renters, Work from Home, Drives Need for More Spacious SFR Homes From the consumer standpoint, more bedrooms in a Single-Family Rental (SFR) home makes sense. Most families are clamoring for more space. Millennials, the largest demographic cohort, are entering peak child-rearing years and more space is a necessity. Of course, the global pandemic has played a role in shaping housing trends, as well. More people are working from home and need extra space for one, even two, home offices. More than one-third (35%) of workers with jobs that can be done remotely are working from home all the time, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. This is down from 43% in January 2022 and 55% in October 2020 — but up from only 7% before the pandemic. That’s a five-fold increase in people who need – or likely want – more home office space. While many companies are still hoping to bring workers back to the office, the trend seems to have leveled out. Work from home, in one form or another, is now an entrenched part of the working world and it will continue to impact housing decisions for consumers, builders and investors, alike. Even for a family with only two children, a three-bedroom home no longer has the utility needed for the typical family. Many families are caregivers for an aging parent. In fact, according to Pew Research, 23% of US adults are now part of the sandwich generation — people taking care of an aging parent and a child under the age of 18. These people simply want – and need — more bedrooms, whether they are owners or renters. More families are opting to rent today, as well. The typical age to buy a first home has jumped from 33 years old in 2021 to 36 years old today. It is the oldest ever on record for first time buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors. The rising age is a sign that high housing costs and mortgage rates are pushing homeownership out of reach for younger Americans. Mortgage rates have shot up so rapidly that the average monthly payment on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose by more than $600 in one year, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The CFPB says the average payment for a home purchase loan surged more than 46% — from $1,400 per month to $2,045 — over the 12 months ending December 2022. Likewise, the median total of costs and fees for such mortgages spiked almost 22% to nearly $6,000 in the same period. And with mortgage rates rising to decades-old highs this week, the average monthly payment has almost certainly grown in 2023. This is pushing more people to rentals . Additional Bedrooms Drive up Rental Income, Profits for Builders, Institutional Investors From a business perspective, there is almost no reason for a builder or investor to construct or invest in new three-bedroom homes. If a builder has invested in a lot for $100,000, that is a fixed cost. It is not going to change no matter what they build. A 2,200-square-foot house can be configured with three-, four- or five-bedroom options, so why not go for the configuration that brings a higher profit margin? Won’t an extra bedroom cost more, you ask? Not really. In a 2,200-square-foot house, adding an extra bedroom is a minimal investment up front (approximately $1,000) and will continue to pay for itself over time. Each bedroom can bring an additional $150 per month in rent. That means opting for a four- or five-bedroom house adds $150 to $300 in rent per house per month directly to the bottom line. For builders putting together a Build-to-Rent subdivision, those numbers multiply quickly. A 30-home rental development with five-bedroom homes will yield an additional $100,000 in rent per year. It is as simple as creating a layout that includes five bedrooms. Four- and Five-Bedroom SFR Homes Yield High Occupancy, Positive Cash Flow I have seen this strategy work first-hand. In two of our most recent Build-to-Rent subdivisions, we have opted exclusively for four- and five-bedroom 2,200-square-foot homes in up-and-coming communities. The confluence of demographics (older renters with young families) along with higher home and mortgage costs are pushing more people into high-end rental homes. One key to success is finding cities with growing populations and desirable amenities. Like any real estate transaction, good schools, youth programs, restaurants and entertainment options are important factors. Once you check those boxes, occupancy falls into place. Our occupancy rates are close to 100%, creating positive cash flow, from a demographic of affluent renters with high credit scores. Finally, we anticipate our five-bedroom rentals will add value significantly faster than three-bedroom homes. Whether we hold these assets for one, five or 10 years, the return on our initial investment will be significantly higher with a five-bedroom SFR rental strategy.  While no real estate investment strategy is fool-proof, four- and five-bedroom homes show great promise over the next several years. As for the three-bedroom home: You are more likely to see one in the Smithsonian someday. Bruce McNeilage Bruce McNeilage is co-founder and CEO of Kinloch Partners. He has been in the real estate investment business for 33 years, is a national speaker and guest lecturer on the topic of single-family “Built to Rent” (BTR) housing and started his own BTR business in 2005. Kinloch currently owns assets in the MSAs of: Nashville, Tennessee; Atlanta and Augusta, Georgia; and Aiken, Greenville-Spartanburg, and Columbia, South Carolina. Learn more at KinlochPartners.net.
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The Information Management Network (IMN) Third Annual Awards ceremony is scheduled to take place at the Fairmont Scottsdale Princess December 2nd.
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